Climate change in Antarctica

Despite its isolation, Antarctica has experienced warming and ice loss in recent decades, driven by greenhouse gas emissions.[1][2] West Antarctica warmed by over 0.1 °C per decade from the 1950s to the 2000s, and the exposed Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid-20th century.[3] The colder, stabler East Antarctica did not show any warming until the 2000s.[4][5] Around Antarctica, the Southern Ocean has absorbed more oceanic heat than any other ocean,[6] and has seen strong warming at depths below 2,000 m (6,600 ft).[7]: 1230  Around the West Antarctic, the ocean has warmed by 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1955.[3]

The warming of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has caused the weakening or collapse of ice shelves, which float just offshore of glaciers and stabilize them. Many coastal glaciers have been losing mass and retreating, causing net ice loss across Antarctica,[7]: 1264  although the East Antarctic ice sheet continues to gain ice inland. By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica is expected to add about 11 cm (5 in) to global sea-level rise. Marine ice sheet instability may cause West Antarctica to contribute tens of centimeters more if it is triggered before 2100.[7]: 1270  With higher warming, instability would be much more likely, and could double global, 21st-century sea-level rise.[8][9][10]

The fresh meltwater from the ice dilutes the saline Antarctic bottom water,[11][12] weakening the lower cell of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation (SOOC).[7]: 1240  According to some research, a full collapse of the SOOC may occur at between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F) of global warming,[13] although the full effects are expected to occur over multiple centuries; these include less precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere but more in the Northern Hemisphere, an eventual decline of fisheries in the Southern Ocean and a potential collapse of certain marine ecosystems.[14] While many Antarctic species remain undiscovered, there are documented increases in Antarctic flora,[15] and large fauna such as penguins are already having difficulty retaining suitable habitat. On ice-free land, permafrost thaws release greenhouse gases and formerly frozen pollution.[16]

The West Antarctic ice sheet is likely to completely melt[17][18] unless temperatures are reduced by 2 °C (3.6 °F) below 2020 levels.[19] The loss of this ice sheet would take between 500 and 13,000 years.[20][21] A sea-level rise of 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) would occur if the ice sheet collapses, leaving ice caps on the mountains, and 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in) if those ice caps also melt.[22] The far-stabler East Antarctic ice sheet may only cause a sea-level rise of 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) – 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) from the current level of warming, a small fraction of the 53.3 m (175 ft) contained in the full ice sheet.[23] With global warming of around 3 °C (5.4 °F), vulnerable areas like Wilkes Basin and Aurora Basin may collapse over around 2,000 years,[20][21] potentially adding up to 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels.[24]

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  2. ^ Casado, Mathieu; Hébert, Raphaël; Faranda, Davide; Landais, Amaelle (2023). "The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica". Nature Climate Change. 13 (10): 1082–1088. Bibcode:2023NatCC..13.1082C. doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01791-5. ISSN 1758-6798.
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  4. ^ Cite error: The named reference Clem2020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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  7. ^ a b c d Cite error: The named reference IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch.9 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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  15. ^ Roland, Thomas P.; Bartlett, Oliver T.; Charman, Dan J.; Anderson, Karen; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Maclean, Ilya; Fretwell, Peter T.; Fleming, Andrew (4 October 2024). "Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites". Nature Geoscience. 17 (11): 1121–1126. Bibcode:2024NatGe..17.1121R. doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01564-5. ISSN 1752-0908.
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  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference Naughten2023 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ Cite error: The named reference Garbe2020 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  20. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference ArmstrongMcKay2022 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  21. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference ArmstrongMcKayExplainer was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  22. ^ Cite error: The named reference BEDMAP2-2013 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  23. ^ Cite error: The named reference Crotti2022 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  24. ^ Cite error: The named reference Pan2021 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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